Finance

Amid a standstill in Congress over a fresh round of stimulus, President Trump issued several executive orders over the weekend to fast-track some economic aid initiatives to deal with the continued fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. One key order is a so-called payroll tax holiday—which would put a moratorium on paying certain payroll tax until next year.

The order has already been met with a lot of criticism, including that the tax deferral wouldn’t help the people who might need it most who have lost their jobs and aren’t currently paying payroll tax. Meanwhile, there’s a catch: the order is only a deferral of the taxes, so it won’t forgive them—as things stand, you’ll have to pay the taxes later.

“It is far from clear that the payroll tax holiday will achieve its intended objective of, as the president said, ‘save American jobs and provide relief to the American workers’,” Bankrate.com senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said in a note Monday. “The bill is still due, it just isn’t due in the short-term. Let’s remember it is the unemployed who need help, not so much Americans who are still working and who’d get the benefit.”

What is the payroll tax holiday?

You could practically see Elon Musk smile. On July 1, after an impressive rally of its stock price, Tesla—the 17-year-old electric-car company for which Musk serves as CEO—became the world’s most valuable automaker, worth an eye-watering $209 billion. Barely a month later, it’s worth $279 billion—more than quadruple the combined value of American icons General Motors and Ford Motor, even though the California company sold just 4% of the vehicles the Detroit duo did last year.

How substantial must Tesla’s actual sales be to meet its investors’ outsize expectations? We asked Joe Osha, a JMP Securities analyst who specializes in energy and industrial tech—and a frequent Tesla bull—to show his math. By his calculation Tesla needs to sell 2.5 million vehicles per year, or almost seven times what it managed last year, by 2025 to justify its lofty valuation.

Read more: An electric revolution is coming for American trucking

How did Osha arrive at that number? The analyst estimates that the global EV market—of which Tesla controls nearly a third today—will represent 6 million vehicles per year by 2025, or about 8% of the total global vehicle market. If a substantial share of the EV market goes …

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Anthony Hitt, CEO of Engel & Völkers Americas, was riding a four-wheeler around on his family’s 80-acre homestead farm in Missouri, where he’s working remotely these days, when he took my phone call to discuss luxury real estate. This was our first time chatting since we met—back when in-person was still a thing—in Midtown Manhattan in 2019.

When we last spoke, luxury units in cities like San Francisco and Seattle were still ablaze in bidding wars. But these days, the pandemic that dispersed recently transitioned remote workers, like Hitt, out of big cities to all corners of the country is creating a second-home boom.

“Business is heavy in vacation markets and second-home markets. People with the ability to buy in those areas are using those areas as getaways,” Hitt says.

From the onset of the pandemic, second-home markets, like the Hamptons, saw short-term rental prices spike as the affluent fled urban centers. But as the virus and office shutdowns linger on, homebuyers are now driving up prices in those second-home markets.

“They’re learning they can do their …

We’re living through a once-in-a-lifetime upheaval, and wherever we end up on the other side won’t be the same place we started from. How we work, where we work, and the skills we need will all change. 

Fortune Analytics got an exclusive look at Salesforce’s proprietary data to learn how the pandemic is impacting workers during—and after—the crisis. 

Since early May, the Salesforce Research Consumer and Workforce Research Series has published biweekly polls of the public. And the company’s Customer & Market Insights group regularly conducts surveys among decision makers (director level or higher). Fortune Analytics got special access to both datasets. 

Here’s what we found.

The numbers to know 

69%

• … of U.S. workers say the pandemic will permanently change the nature of work in their own career. 

59%

• … of U.S. remote workers say they miss going into the office. 63% say they’ve grown closer to their family during this time, and 67% are interested in incorporating more remote work post-pandemic. 

50% 

• … of U.S workers say they’re considering a career change given their current work situation. 49% want to work in a less volatile role or industry than the one they currently work in.

48%

• … of

The unemployment rate dropped from 11.1% in June to 10.2% in July, as the economy added nearly 1.8 million jobs last month, soundly beating consensus estimates. Equities futures and the dollar gained on the news.

That marks a third straight month of solid hiring and a falling jobless rate after it topped out at 14.7% in April—the highest level since 1940.

This points to an economy that continues to rebound since states began easing lockdowns. The 10.2% unemployment rate, while still weak, comes in far better than the 10.6% consensus estimates of economists compiled by Bloomberg. The improvement will be good news for the White House, but it’s clear it will take years before the U.S. labor market returns to pre-pandemic levels.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report finds the total number of unemployed Americans stood at 16.3 million in July, much improved from the 23.1 million unemployed in April. But the number of Americans out of work is still around three times greater than the February figure (when 5.8 million were unemployed), and indicates the much hoped for V-shaped recovery is far from likely.

Jobless Americans were receiving an extra $600 per weekly in unemployment …

Investors should consider the risk of a successful coronavirus vaccine unsettling markets by sparking a sell-off in bonds and rotation out of technology into cyclical stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The increased probability of an approved vaccine by the end of November is underpriced by equity markets, wrote strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi in a note Wednesday. Over the next few months, the ramifications of the U.S. election and the evolution of the virus—in part as schools reopen—are also likely to be key drivers of the market, they said.

Approval of a vaccine could “challenge market assumptions both about cyclicality and about eternally negative real rates,” the team wrote, adding such a scenario may support steeper yield curves, traditional cyclicals and banks, while challenging the leadership of technology stocks.

If this happened along with a change in the U.S. administration, emerging market equities could benefit “if trade policy risks diminish while U.S. tax risks rise,” according to the note.

While the strategists suggested it may be too early for investors to position themselves aggressively for such a shift, they recommended options trades as a way to play the theme. For example, some call options on the S&P 500 still …