A Surgutneftegas worker near pumpjacks in Surgut Region of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area – Yugra, in the West Siberian petroleum basin.

Alexei Andronov | TASS via Getty Images

Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the ratio between two of the world’s most-watched commodities is “worth highlighting,” saying it may be of interest to those seeking guidance on the direction of oil prices.

“The oil-gold ratio has historically been a poor indicator of future oil prices,” Morgan Stanley’s Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant said in a research note published Monday.

“However, it is interesting at its extremes.”

Crude futures tend to be supported during periods of high inflation, while gold is traditionally used as a hedge against inflation. This positive correlation has often meant higher oil prices have coincided with higher gold prices, although one does not directly impact the other.

The ratio between oil and gold illustrates how many barrels of oil are needed to buy an ounce of gold.

At present, international benchmark Brent crude futures are down more than 35% year-to-date, on pace for their worst year since 2015. In stark contrast, spot gold futures are trading up over 19% this year, on track for their best year since

Bill McDermott has put decades into business leadership, first at Xerox, then as CEO of SAP, and now as the chief executive at ServiceNow, an industry-spanning software company. On the July 14 episode of “Leadership Next”, the Fortune podcast about the changing role of CEO, McDermott and hosts Alan Murray and Ellen McGirt discuss the state of business today. 

After spending 17 years at Xerox and 17 years at SAP, McDermott decided it was time for a change, both in his life and at SAP. 

“I think 10 years is about the right amount of time to be CEO,” he said. “And I felt strongly that it was in my best interest as well as SAP’s to bring on a new generation at SAP and then give me a new experience, a new frontier to conquer.” 

In his time at the three companies, he’s encountered plenty of leadership styles and approaches to business, and McDermott said over the decades a lot has changed. At the beginning of his career, management was focused more on managing daily tasks and processes.  

These days, he said, corporate leadership requires a softer touch and the ability to release workers’ …

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Good morning. Asia and Europe are awash in red as investors fret over U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, plus a new wave of shutdowns and coronavirus spikes from Hong Kong to California.

Let’s check in on the action.

Markets update

Asia

  • The major Asia indexes are all lower in afternoon trade with the Shanghai Composite Index off 1.5%, leading the way down.
  • Dark geopolitical clouds continue to gather… The Trump Administration has not completely ruled out ending Hong Kong’s dollar peg as it looks for a way to punish mainland China for the new national security law.
  • Meanwhile, China has slapped sanctions on Lockheed Martin over its latest arms deal with Taiwan.
  • One bright spot, however… China is easing travel restrictions for the gambling hotspot Macau, a move that’s lifting casino stocks.

Europe

  • The European bourses reversed yesterday’s gains, nosing down at the open. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 was off 1.2%.
  • EU leaders need to agree to a recovery plan, and it has to be “massive,” says