The end of the ‘V-shaped recovery’

Good morning.

Does anyone out there really still think we are going to have a V-shaped recovery? If so, they should fold now. The surge in COVID cases in Arizona, Florida, Texas, California, South Carolina—which together account for 37% of GDP—have put the final nail in a coffin that was already pretty well sealed. Read more details in Fortune Analytics, here.

But with many restaurants suspending their reopening, that means more good news for food delivery services, like Door Dash, Uber Eats and Grubhub. Uber is clearly betting food delivery is habit forming, which is why it is reportedly in talks to buy Postmates for $2.6 billion (having failed in its effort to take over Grubhub.)

The crystal ball gets hazier when looking further out—or as Nobel physicist Niels Bohr put it: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” But there is mounting evidence that office work will never go back to where it was before the pandemic. PwC has a new survey out this week with some eye-opening factoids:

–The vast majority of office workers—83%—want to work from home at least one day a week, after the pandemic has passed.

–A majority of employers—55%—expect they will give workers that option.

–But interestingly, it’s unclear whether more remote work means less demand for office space. While 30% of executives in the PwC study foresee the need for less space, 50% anticipate needing more, to allow for either prolonged demand for social distancing or company growth.

You can find the full study here. More news below.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray

[email protected]

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